Distinct lung cell signatures define the temporal evolution of diffuse alveolar damage in fatal COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Lung damage in severe COVID-19 is highly heterogeneous however studies with dedicated spatial distinction of discrete temporal phases of diffuse alveolar damage (DAD) and alternate lung injury patterns are lacking. Existing studies have also not accounted for progressive airspace obliteration in cellularity estimates. We used an imaging mass cytometry (IMC) analysis with an airspace correction step to more accurately identify the cellular immune response that underpins the heterogeneity of severe COVID-19 lung disease. METHODS: Lung tissue was obtained at post-mortem from severe COVID-19 deaths. Pathologist-selected regions of interest (ROIs) were chosen by light microscopy representing the patho-evolutionary spectrum of DAD and alternate disease phenotypes were selected for comparison. Architecturally normal SARS-CoV-2-positive lung tissue and tissue from SARS-CoV-2-negative donors served as controls. ROIs were stained for 40 cellular protein markers and ablated using IMC before segmented cells were classified. Cell populations corrected by ROI airspace and their spatial relationships were compared across lung injury patterns. FINDINGS: Forty patients (32M:8F, age: 22-98), 345 ROIs and >900k single cells were analysed. DAD progression was marked by airspace obliteration and significant increases in mononuclear phagocytes (MnPs), T and B lymphocytes and significant decreases in alveolar epithelial and endothelial cells. Neutrophil populations proved stable overall although several interferon-responding subsets demonstrated expansion. Spatial analysis revealed immune cell interactions occur prior to microscopically appreciable tissue injury. INTERPRETATION: The immunopathogenesis of severe DAD in COVID-19 lung disease is characterised by sustained increases in MnPs and lymphocytes with key interactions occurring even prior to lung injury is established. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation/Medical Research Council through the UK Coronavirus Immunology Consortium, Barbour Foundation, General Sir John Monash Foundation, Newcastle University, JGW Patterson Foundation, Wellcome Trust.

Vaccine value profile for leishmaniasis.

Leishmania infections are global, occurring in 98 countries and all World Health Organization (WHO) regions with 600 million to 1 billion people at risk of infection. Visceral leishmaniasis is associated with almost 20,000 reported deaths annually, with children under 5 years of age being at the greatest risk of mortality. Amongst WHO-recognised Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs), leishmaniasis is one of the most important in terms of mortality and morbidity. With an increasing global burden of disease and a growing threat from climate change, urbanisation and drug resistance, there remains an imperative to develop leishmaniasis vaccines. New tools to understand correlates of protection and to assess vaccine efficacy are being developed to ease the transition into larger scale efficacy trials or provide alternate routes to licensure. Early indications suggest a diverse portfolio of manufacturers exists in endemic countries with an appetite to develop leishmaniasis vaccines. This Vaccine Value Profile (VVP) provides a high-level, comprehensive assessment of the currently available data to inform the potential public health, economic, and societal value of leishmaniasis vaccines. The leishmaniasis VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, public health groups, policy organizations, and non-profit organizations. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the leishmaniasis VVP and have collectively described the state of knowledge and identified the current gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.

Immune dysregulation and inflammation causing hypopigmentation in post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis: partners in crime?

Post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL), a heterogeneous dermal sequela of visceral leishmaniasis (VL), is challenging in terms of its etiopathogenesis. Hypopigmentation is a consistent clinical feature in PKDL, but mechanisms contributing to the loss of melanocytes remains poorly defined. Like other hypopigmentary dermatoses - for example, vitiligo, psoriasis, and leprosy - the destruction of melanocytes is likely a multifactorial phenomenon, key players being immune dysregulation and inflammation. This review focuses on immunological mechanisms responsible for the 'murder' of melanocytes, prime suspects at the lesional sites being CD8+ T cells and keratinocytes and their criminal tools being proinflammatory cytokines, for example, IFN-γ, IL-6, and TNF-α. Collectively, these may cause decreased secretion of melanocyte growth factors, loss/attenuation of cell adhesion molecules and inflammasome activation, culminating in melanocyte death.

Downregulation of MALAT1 is a hallmark of tissue and peripheral proliferative T cells in COVID-19.

T cells play key protective but also pathogenic roles in COVID-19. We studied the expression of long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) in COVID-19 T-cell transcriptomes by integrating previously published single-cell RNA sequencing datasets. The long intergenic non-coding RNA MALAT1 was the most highly transcribed lncRNA in T cells, with Th1 cells demonstrating the lowest and CD8+ resident memory cells the highest MALAT1 expression, amongst CD4+ and CD8+ T-cells populations, respectively. We then identified gene signatures that covaried with MALAT1 in single T cells. A significantly higher number of transcripts correlated negatively with MALAT1 than those that correlated. Enriched functional annotations of the MALAT1- anti-correlating gene signature included processes associated with T-cell activation such as cell division, oxidative phosphorylation, and response to cytokine. The MALAT1 anti-correlating gene signature shared by both CD4+ and CD8+ T-cells marked dividing T cells in both the lung and blood of COVID-19 patients. Focussing on the tissue, we used an independent patient cohort of post-mortem COVID-19 lung samples and demonstrated that MALAT1 suppression was indeed a marker of MKI67+ proliferating CD8+ T cells. Our results reveal MALAT1 suppression and its associated gene signature are a hallmark of human proliferating T cells.

Identification of a protein expression signature distinguishing early from organising diffuse alveolar damage in COVID-19 patients.

Diffuse alveolar damage (DAD) is the histological expression of acute respiratory distress syndrome and characterises lung pathology due to infection with SARS-CoV-2, and other respiratory pathogens of clinical significance. DAD reflects a time-dependent immunopathological process, progressing from an early/exudative stage through to an organising/fibrotic stage, yet within an individual these different stages of DAD may coexist. Understanding the progression of DAD is central to the development of new therapeutics to limit progressive lung damage. Here, we applied highly multiplexed spatial protein profiling to autopsy lung tissues derived from 27 patients who died from COVID-19 and identified a protein signature (ARG1, CD127, GZMB, IDO1, Ki67, phospho-PRAS40 (T246) and VISTA) that distinguishes early DAD from late DAD with good predictive accuracy. These proteins warrant further investigation as potential regulators of DAD progression.

Leishmaniasis Vaccines: Applications of RNA Technology and Targeted Clinical Trial Designs.

Leishmania parasites cause a variety of discrete clinical diseases that present in regions where their specific sand fly vectors sustain transmission. Clinical and laboratory research indicate the potential of immunization to prevent leishmaniasis and a wide array of vaccine candidates have been proposed. Unfortunately, multiple factors have precluded advancement of more than a few Leishmania targeting vaccines to clinical trial. The recent maturation of RNA vaccines into licensed products in the context of COVID-19 indicates the likelihood of broader use of the technology. Herein, we discuss the potential benefits provided by RNA technology as an approach to address the bottlenecks encountered for Leishmania vaccines. Further, we outline a variety of strategies that could be used to more efficiently evaluate Leishmania vaccine efficacy, including controlled human infection models and initial use in a therapeutic setting, that could prioritize candidates before evaluation in larger, longer and more complicated field trials.

Mass spectrometry imaging identifies altered hepatic lipid signatures during experimental Leishmania donovani infection.

Introduction: Spatial analysis of lipids in inflammatory microenvironments is key to understand the pathogenesis of infectious disease. Granulomatous inflammation is a hallmark of leishmaniasis and changes in host and parasite lipid metabolism have been observed at the bulk tissue level in various infection models. Here, mass spectrometry imaging (MSI) is applied to spatially map hepatic lipid composition following infection with Leishmania donovani, an experimental mouse model of visceral leishmaniasis. Methods: Livers from naïve and L. donovani-infected C57BL/6 mice were harvested at 14- and 20-days post-infection (n=5 per time point). 12 µm transverse sections were cut and covered with norhamane, prior to lipid analysis using MALDI-MSI. MALDI-MSI was performed in negative mode on a Rapiflex (Bruker Daltonics) at 5 and 50 µm spatial resolution and data-dependent analysis (DDA) on an Orbitrap-Elite (Thermo-Scientific) at 50 µm spatial resolution for structural identification analysis of lipids. Results: Aberrant lipid abundances were observed in a heterogeneous distribution across infected mouse livers compared to naïve mouse liver. Distinctive localized correlated lipid masses were found in granulomas and surrounding parenchymal tissue. Structural identification revealed 40 different lipids common to naïve and d14/d20 infected mouse livers, whereas 15 identified lipids were only detected in infected mouse livers. For pathology-guided MSI imaging, we deduced lipids from manually annotated granulomatous and parenchyma regions of interests (ROIs), identifying 34 lipids that showed significantly different intensities between parenchyma and granulomas across all infected livers. Discussion: Our results identify specific lipids that spatially correlate to the major histopathological feature of Leishmania donovani infection in the liver, viz. hepatic granulomas. In addition, we identified a three-fold increase in the number of unique phosphatidylglycerols (PGs) in infected liver tissue and provide direct evidence that arachidonic acid-containing phospholipids are localized with hepatic granulomas. These phospholipids may serve as important precursors for downstream oxylipin generation with consequences for the regulation of the inflammatory cascade. This study provides the first description of the use of MSI to define spatial-temporal lipid changes at local sites of infection induced by Leishmania donovani in mice.

Estimating the global demand curve for a leishmaniasis vaccine: A generalisable approach based on global burden of disease estimates.

BACKGROUND: A pressing need exists to develop vaccines for neglected diseases, including leishmaniasis. However, the development of new vaccines is dependent on their value to two key players-vaccine developers and manufacturers who need to have confidence in the global demand in order to commit to research and production; and governments (or other international funders) who need to signal demand based on the potential public health benefits of the vaccine in their local context, as well as its affordability. A detailed global epidemiological analysis is rarely available before a vaccine enters a market due to lack of resources as well as insufficient global data necessary for such an analysis. Our study seeks to bridge this information gap by providing a generalisable approach to estimating the commercial and public health value of a vaccine in development relying primarily on publicly available Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data. This simplified approach is easily replicable and can be used to guide discussions and investments into vaccines and other health technologies where evidence constraints exist. The approach is demonstrated through the estimation of the demand curve for a future leishmaniasis vaccine. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We project the ability to pay over the period 2030-2040 for a vaccine preventing cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis (CL / VL), using an illustrative set of countries which account for most of the global disease burden. First, based on previous work on vaccine demand projections in these countries and CL / VL GBD-reported incidence rates, we project the potential long-term impact of the vaccine on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted as a result of reduced incidence. Then, we apply an economic framework to our estimates to determine vaccine affordability based on the abilities to pay of governments and global funders, leading to estimates of the demand and market size. Based on our estimates, the maximum ability-to-pay of a leishmaniasis vaccine (per course, including delivery costs), given the current estimates of incidence and population at risk, is higher than $5 for 25-30% of the countries considered, with the average value-based maximum price, weighted by quantity demanded, being $5.7-6 [$0.3 - $34.5], and total demand of over 560 million courses. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results demonstrate that both the quantity of vaccines estimated to be required by the countries considered as well as their ability-to-pay could make a vaccine for leishmaniasis commercially attractive to potential manufacturers. The methodology used can be equally applied to other technology developments targeting health in developing countries.

Tissue Specific Dual RNA-Seq Defines Host-Parasite Interplay in Murine Visceral Leishmaniasis Caused by Leishmania donovani and Leishmania infantum.

Visceral leishmaniasis is associated with hepato-splenomegaly and altered immune and hematological parameters in both preclinical animal models and humans. We studied mouse experimental visceral leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania infantum and Leishmania donovani in BALB/c mice using dual RNA-seq to investigate the transcriptional response of host and parasite in liver and spleen. We identified only 4 species-specific parasite expressed genes (SSPEGs; log2FC >1, FDR <0.05) in the infected spleen, and none in the infected liver. For the host transcriptome, we found 789 differentially expressed genes (DEGs; log2FC >1, FDR <0.05) in the spleen that were common to both infections, with IFNγ signaling and complement and coagulation cascade pathways highly enriched, and an additional 286 and 186 DEGs that were selective to L. donovani and L. infantum infection, respectively. Among those, there were network interactions between genes of amino acid metabolism and PPAR signaling in L. donovani infection and increased IL1ß and positive regulation of fatty acid transport in L. infantum infection, although no pathway enrichment was observed. In the liver, there were 1,939 DEGs in mice infected with either L. infantum or L. donovani in comparison to uninfected mice, and the most enriched pathways were IFNγ signaling, neutrophil mediated immunity, complement and coagulation, cytokine-chemokine responses, and hemostasis. Additionally, 221 DEGs were selective in L. donovani and 429 DEGs in L. infantum infections. These data show that the host response for these two visceral leishmaniasis infection models is broadly similar, and ∼10% of host DEGs vary in infections with either parasite species. IMPORTANCE Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is caused by two species of Leishmania parasites, L. donovani in the Old World and L. infantum in the New World and countries bordering the Mediterranean. Although cardinal features such as hepato-splenomegaly and alterations in blood and immune function are evident, clinical presentation may vary by geography, with for example severe bleeding often associated with VL in Brazil. Although animal models of both L. donovani and L. infantum have been widely used to study disease pathogenesis, a direct side-by-side comparison of how these parasites species impact the infected host and/or how they might respond to the stresses of mammalian infection has not been previously reported. Identifying common and distinct pathways to pathogenesis will be important to ensure that new therapeutic or prophylactic approaches will be applicable across all forms of VL.

Integrated miRNA/cytokine/chemokine profiling reveals severity-associated step changes and principal correlates of fatality in COVID-19.

Inflammatory cytokines and chemokines (CC) drive COVID-19 pathology. Yet, patients with similar circulating CC levels present with different disease severity. Here, we determined 171 microRNAomes from 58 hospitalized COVID-19 patients (Cohort 1) and levels of 25 cytokines and chemokines (CC) in the same samples. Combining microRNA (miRNA) and CC measurements allowed for discrimination of severe cases with greater accuracy than using miRNA or CC levels alone. Severity group-specific associations between miRNAs and COVID-19-associated CC (e.g., IL6, CCL20) or clinical hallmarks of COVID-19 (e.g., neutrophilia, hypoalbuminemia) separated patients with similar CC levels but different disease severity. Analysis of an independent cohort of 108 patients from a different center (Cohort 2) demonstrated feasibility of CC/miRNA profiling in leftover hospital blood samples with similar severe disease CC and miRNA profiles, and revealed CCL20, IL6, IL10, and miR-451a as key correlates of fatal COVID-19. These findings highlight that systemic miRNA/CC networks underpin severe COVID-19.

Post-mortem lung tissue: the fossil record of the pathophysiology and immunopathology of severe COVID-19.

The lungs are the main site that is affected in severe COVID-19, and post-mortem lung tissue provides crucial insights into the pathophysiology of severe disease. From basic histology to state-of-the-art multiparameter digital pathology technologies, post-mortem lung tissue provides snapshots of tissue architecture, and resident and inflammatory cell phenotypes and composition at the time of death. Contrary to early assumptions that COVID-19 in the lungs is a uniform disease, post-mortem findings have established a high degree of disease heterogeneity. Classic diffuse alveolar damage represents just one phenotype, with disease divisible by early and late progression as well as by pathophysiological process. A distinct lung tissue state occurs with secondary infection; extrapulmonary causes of death might also originate from a pathological process in the lungs linked to microthrombosis. This heterogeneity of COVID-19 lung disease must be recognised in the management of patients and in the development of novel treatment strategies.

Overcoming roadblocks in the development of vaccines for leishmaniasis.

INTRODUCTION: The leishmaniases represent a group of parasitic diseases caused by infection with one of several species of Leishmania parasites. Disease presentation varies because of differences in parasite and host genetics and may be influenced by additional factors such as host nutritional status or co-infection. Studies in experimental models of Leishmania infection, vaccination of companion animals and human epidemiological data suggest that many forms of leishmaniasis could be prevented by vaccination, but no vaccines are currently available for human use. AREAS COVERED: We describe some of the existing roadblocks to the development and implementation of an effective leishmaniasis vaccine, based on a review of recent literature found on PubMed, BioRxiv and MedRxiv. In addition to discussing scientific unknowns that hinder vaccine candidate identification and selection, we explore gaps in knowledge regarding the commercial and public health value propositions underpinning vaccine development and provide a route map for future research and advocacy. EXPERT OPINION: Despite significant progress, leishmaniasis vaccine development remains hindered by significant gaps in understanding that span the vaccine development pipeline. Increased coordination and adoption of a more holistic view to vaccine development will be required to ensure more rapid progress in the years ahead.

Early reduction in PD-L1 expression predicts faster treatment response in human cutaneous leishmaniasis.

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is caused by Leishmania donovani in Sri Lanka. Pentavalent antimonials (e.g., sodium stibogluconate [SSG]) remain first-line drugs for CL with no new effective treatments emerging. We studied whole blood and lesion transcriptomes from Sri Lankan patients with CL at presentation and during SSG treatment. From lesions but not whole blood, we identified differential expression of immune-related genes, including immune checkpoint molecules, after onset of treatment. Using spatial profiling and RNA-FISH, we confirmed reduced expression of programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) and indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase 1 (IDO1) proteins on treatment in lesions of a second validation cohort and further demonstrated significantly higher expression of these checkpoint molecules on parasite-infected compared with noninfected lesional CD68+ monocytes and macrophages. Crucially, early reduction in PD-L1 but not IDO1 expression was predictive of rate of clinical cure (HR = 4.88) and occurred in parallel with reduction in parasite load. Our data support a model whereby the initial anti-leishmanial activity of antimonial drugs alleviates checkpoint inhibition on T cells, facilitating immune-drug synergism and clinical cure. Our findings demonstrate that PD-L1 expression can be used as a predictor of rapidity of clinical response to SSG treatment in Sri Lanka and support further evaluation of PD-L1 as a host-directed therapeutic in leishmaniasis.

Vaccines against leishmaniasis: using controlled human infection models to accelerate development.

INTRODUCTION: Leishmaniasis is a neglected tropical disease that is defined by the World Health Organization as vaccine preventable. Although several new candidate vaccines are in development, no vaccine has successfully reached the market for human use. Several species of Leishmania cause human disease and have co-evolved with their respective sand fly vectors. These unique relationships have implications for initiation of infection and vaccine development. An approach to vaccine development for many infectious diseases is the use of controlled human infection models (CHIMs). AREAS COVERED: We describe the history and recent development of experimental and deliberate infection using Leishmania in humans and the rationale for developing a new sand fly-initiated CHIM to progress leishmaniasis vaccine development. Examples from other infectious diseases are discussed in the context of the development of a new leishmaniasis CHIM. We also reflect upon the manufacture of the challenge agent, practical considerations, safety, ethics, and regulatory issues. EXPERT OPINION: A new cutaneous Leishmania CHIM is being developed to enable testing of vaccines in the development pipeline. Questions remain about the use of such CHIMs to determine effectiveness of vaccines against visceral leishmaniasis. However, such a CHIM will be invaluable in expediting time to market for vaccines.

A clinical study to optimise a sand fly biting protocol for use in a controlled human infection model of cutaneous leishmaniasis (the FLYBITE study).

Background: Leishmaniasis is a globally important yet neglected parasitic disease transmitted by phlebotomine sand flies. With new candidate vaccines in or near the clinic, a controlled human challenge model (CHIM) using natural sand fly challenge would provide a method for early evaluation of prophylactic efficacy. Methods : We evaluated the biting frequency and adverse effects resulting from exposure of human volunteers to bites of either Phlebotomus papatasi or P. duboscqi, two natural vectors of Leishmania major. 12 healthy participants were recruited (mean age 40.2 ± 11.8 years) with no history of significant travel to regions where L. major-transmitting sand flies are prevalent. Participants were assigned to either vector by 1:1 allocation and exposed to five female sand flies for 30 minutes in a custom biting chamber. Bite frequency was recorded to confirm a bloodmeal was taken. Participant responses and safety outcomes were monitored using a visual analogue scale (VAS), clinical examination, and blood biochemistry. Focus groups were subsequently conducted to explore participant acceptability. Results: All participants had at least one successful sand fly bite with none reporting any serious adverse events, with median VAS scores of 0-1/10 out to day 21 post-sand fly bite. Corresponding assessment of sand flies confirmed that for each participant at least 1/5 sand flies had successfully taken a bloodmeal (overall mean 3.67±1.03 bites per participant). There was no significant difference between P. papatasi and P. duboscqi in the number of bites resulting from 5 sand flies applied to human participants (3.3±0.81 vs 3.00±1.27 bites per participant; p=0.56) .  In the two focus groups (n=5 per group), themes relating to positive participant-reported experiences of being bitten and the overall study, were identified. Conclusions: These results validate a protocol for achieving successful sand fly bites in humans that is safe, well-tolerated and acceptable for participants. Clinicaltrials.gov registration: NCT03999970 (27/06/2019).

Spatially Resolved Immunometabolism to Understand Infectious Disease Progression.

Infectious diseases, including those of viral, bacterial, fungal, and parasitic origin are often characterized by focal inflammation occurring in one or more distinct tissues. Tissue-specific outcomes of infection are also evident in many infectious diseases, suggesting that the local microenvironment may instruct complex and diverse innate and adaptive cellular responses resulting in locally distinct molecular signatures. In turn, these molecular signatures may both drive and be responsive to local metabolic changes in immune as well as non-immune cells, ultimately shaping the outcome of infection. Given the spatial complexity of immune and inflammatory responses during infection, it is evident that understanding the spatial organization of transcripts, proteins, lipids, and metabolites is pivotal to delineating the underlying regulation of local immunity. Molecular imaging techniques like mass spectrometry imaging and spatially resolved, highly multiplexed immunohistochemistry and transcriptomics can define detailed metabolic signatures at the microenvironmental level. Moreover, a successful complementation of these two imaging techniques would allow multi-omics analyses of inflammatory microenvironments to facilitate understanding of disease pathogenesis and identify novel targets for therapeutic intervention. Here, we describe strategies for downstream data analysis of spatially resolved multi-omics data and, using leishmaniasis as an exemplar, describe how such analysis can be applied in a disease-specific context.

Interferon-γ-Producing CD4+ T Cells Drive Monocyte Activation in the Bone Marrow During Experimental Leishmania donovani Infection.

Ly6Chi inflammatory monocytes develop in the bone marrow and migrate to the site of infection during inflammation. Upon recruitment, Ly6Chi monocytes can differentiate into dendritic cells or macrophages. According to the tissue environment they can also acquire different functions. Several studies have described pre-activation of Ly6Chi monocytes in the bone marrow during parasitic infection, but whether this process occurs during experimental visceral leishmaniasis and, if so, the mechanisms contributing to their activation are yet to be established. In wild type C57BL/6 (B6) mice infected with Leishmania donovani, the number of bone marrow Ly6Chi monocytes increased over time. Ly6Chi monocytes displayed a highly activated phenotype from 28 days to 5 months post infection (p.i), with >90% expressing MHCII and >20% expressing iNOS. In comparison, in B6.Rag2-/- mice <10% of bone marrow monocytes were MHCII+ at day 28 p.i., an activation deficiency that was reversed by adoptive transfer of CD4+ T cells. Depletion of CD4+ T cells in B6 mice and the use of mixed bone marrow chimeras further indicated that monocyte activation was driven by IFNγ produced by CD4+ T cells. In B6.Il10-/- mice, L. donovani infection induced a faster but transient activation of bone marrow monocytes, which correlated with the magnitude of CD4+ T cell production of IFNγ and resolution of the infection. Under all of the above conditions, monocyte activation was associated with greater control of parasite load in the bone marrow. Through reinfection studies in B6.Il10-/- mice and drug (AmBisome®) treatment of B6 mice, we also show the dependence of monocyte activation on parasite load. In summary, these data demonstrate that during L. donovani infection, Ly6Chi monocytes are primed in the bone marrow in a process driven by CD4+ T cells and whereby IFNγ promotes and IL-10 limits monocyte activation and that the presence of parasites/parasite antigen plays a crucial role in maintaining bone marrow monocyte activation.

Human leishmaniasis vaccines: Use cases, target population and potential global demand.

The development of vaccines against one or all forms of human leishmaniasis remains hampered by a paucity of investment, at least in part resulting from the lack of well-evidenced and agreed estimates of vaccine demand. Starting from the definition of 4 main use cases (prevention of visceral leishmaniasis, prevention of cutaneous leishmaniasis, prevention of post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis and treatment of post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis), we have estimated the size of each target population, focusing on those endemic countries where incidence levels are sufficiently high to justify decisions to adopt a vaccine. We assumed a dual vaccine delivery strategy, including a wide age-range catch-up campaign before the start of routine immunisation. Vaccine characteristics and delivery parameters reflective of a target product profile and the likely duration of the clinical development effort were considered in forecasting the demand for each of the four indications. Over a period of 10 years, this demand is forecasted to range from 300-830 million doses for a vaccine preventing visceral leishmaniasis and 557-1400 million doses for a vaccine preventing cutaneous leishmaniasis under the different scenarios we simulated. In a scenario with an effective prophylactic visceral leishmaniasis vaccine, demand for use to prevent or treat post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis would be more limited (over the 10 years ~160,000 doses for prevention and ~7,000 doses for treatment). Demand would rise to exceed 330,000 doses, however, in the absence of an effective vaccine for visceral leishmaniasis. Because of the sizeable demand and potential for public health impact, a single-indication prophylactic vaccine for visceral or cutaneous leishmaniasis, and even more so a cross-protective prophylactic vaccine could attract the interest of commercial developers. Continuous refinement of these first-of-their kind estimates and confirmation of country willingness and ability to pay will be paramount to inform the decisions of policy makers and developers in relation to a leishmaniasis vaccine. Positive decisions can provide a much-needed contribution towards the achievement of global leishmaniasis control.